Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 0.017115 0.019391 0.021862 0.024743 0.028012 0.031607 0.035863
2025-06-22 0.012921 0.015911 0.019437 0.023907 0.029428 0.036034 0.044553
2025-06-29 0.010783 0.014050 0.018126 0.023595 0.030754 0.039829 0.052239
2025-07-06 0.009084 0.012392 0.016715 0.022791 0.031131 0.042213 0.058117
2025-07-13 0.008349 0.011856 0.016626 0.023607 0.033598 0.047436 0.068157
2025-07-20 0.007686 0.011312 0.016426 0.024185 0.035712 0.052282 0.078058
2025-07-27 0.007180 0.010919 0.016367 0.024914 0.038051 0.057592 0.089074
2025-08-03 0.006521 0.010218 0.015770 0.024749 0.038992 0.060853 0.097229
2025-08-10 0.005991 0.009655 0.015313 0.024730 0.040113 0.064429 0.106139
2025-08-17 0.005439 0.008998 0.014641 0.024287 0.040486 0.066811 0.113272
2025-08-24 0.005104 0.008657 0.014436 0.024570 0.042046 0.071209 0.124113
2025-08-31 0.004720 0.008198 0.013989 0.024397 0.042799 0.074291 0.132927
2025-09-07 0.004514 0.008033 0.014036 0.025094 0.045155 0.080381 0.147742
2025-09-14 0.004074 0.007417 0.013252 0.024258 0.044714 0.081521 0.153714
2025-09-21 0.003762 0.007002 0.012785 0.023941 0.045170 0.084283 0.162903
2025-09-28 0.003412 0.006484 0.012084 0.023125 0.044609 0.085094 0.168404
2025-10-05 0.003317 0.006437 0.012248 0.023953 0.047252 0.092161 0.186782
2025-10-12 0.003197 0.006331 0.012287 0.024540 0.049463 0.098568 0.204416
2025-10-19 0.003103 0.006267 0.012401 0.025279 0.052036 0.105892 0.224599
2025-10-26 0.002913 0.005995 0.012082 0.025112 0.052735 0.109475 0.237221
2025-11-02 0.002754 0.005773 0.011845 0.025092 0.053733 0.113744 0.251692
2025-11-09 0.002565 0.005472 0.011422 0.024643 0.053773 0.115988 0.261895
2025-11-16 0.002462 0.005343 0.011347 0.024931 0.055432 0.121834 0.280713